External plate agricultural products last weekend collectively limit the new round of large market outbreak

During the National Day holiday, the “staggered” agricultural product futures finally ignited on October 8th, US time. The mainstream varieties such as soybeans, wheat, and corn were collectively traded daily, indicating that a new round of large-scale agricultural products has erupted. The fuse was the latest report on supply and demand released by the US Department of Agriculture. The experts assessed that the prices of agricultural products in the United States will soon rise again, and will drive the rapid rise of global agricultural products. With the strong promotion of external factors, domestic related futures varieties and listed companies will usher in greater favorable conditions.

U.S. Report Lido Raises Agricultural Products

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest October supply and demand report on October 8th, significantly reducing the 2010 crop forecast for crops such as soybeans and corn in the United States, and forecasting carry-overs. The report made a substantial adjustment to the US corn production and ending stocks forecast. The scope of the report shocked the market, and the market supply of soybeans also appeared to be tight.

“The United States Department of Agriculture adjusted the corn so low that it made corn a leading cause of market explosion,” said Zhang Liang, deputy general manager of the Huatai Great Wall Futures Institutions Division. It was precisely because of this fuse that the inflationary forces that accumulated for a long time finally broke out. . "In the long run, the rise of agricultural products is the general trend."

Ma Mingchao, chairman of Qingma Investment, said that at present, from a global perspective, the price of grain in the United States is the lowest. The reason why the US Department of Agriculture’s report was so great this time is because the report reflects that the United States has recognized the rising trend of agricultural products. And in the report, it implied that the price will be raised. Affected by this, the prices of agricultural products in the world will rise accordingly, and the rate of increase will be above 10%.

After the report was released, corn, soybean and wheat futures in the CBOT market hit daily limit. CBOT soybean main contract price rose 70 cents/bushel to 1135 cents/bushel, corn contract rose 30 cents/bushel to 528.25 cents/bushel, and wheat contract closed up 60 cents to 719.25. Cents/bushel. The main contract for soybean oil was 46.22 cents per pound. At the same time, U.S. white sugar and cotton also rose sharply.

Market break or one step in place

“The trend is now very clear. Today, the intraday market is bound to rise, and it may be a daily limit,” said Zhang Liang. The domestic spot market has experienced a panic rise due to the surge in external disk prices, and therefore will not fall in the short-term. Ma Mingchao believes that the increase will be faster and that both domestic and foreign countries will "get in one step."

From a variety point of view, Zhang Liang said that there will be a larger upside for oil and fat. First of all, due to the peak season of oil and fat consumption at the end of the year, in fact, among the bulk of commodities, the increase in oil and fat is very small, so there is a large demand for supplemental growth. In comparison, wheat, corn, and cotton have all been operating at historically high levels, and domestic grain imports and exports are not large, and there is less linkage with the external disk, and the increase is limited.

“There are two negative factors that may come along,” Zhang Liang reminded. First, high-priced agricultural products may dampen downstream demand, which makes prices difficult to maintain, and second, large increases also provide a good opportunity for the State Reserve to enter the market, which may result in The reserve of the State Reserve is dumped at a high level. This will also have a big impact on prices. In addition, because the increase rate in the short term is certainly not small, it is not suitable for large-scale plus long positions.

According to industry sources, for some companies engaged in the production of soybean oil, the price of raw soybeans that they had previously acquired in the United States is still at a low level, and it may coincide with the high price of oil after the completion of finished products, so it increases its profits.