The price of pork rose by 15% in June. Experts claim that CPI is 6% without suspense

The National Bureau of Statistics announced yesterday that the “average price changes of major foods in 50 cities” showed that in late June, the price increase of major foods expanded over the mid-term, pork prices continued to rise, pork prices in late June and May Compared with the late period, the increase reached 15% and the price of pig hindquarters has exceeded 15 yuan per catty.

Pork rose 10% over 10%

According to the data, in late June (June 21-30), among the 29 specifications monitored, 20 specifications were up from the middle of June, accounting for 69%, up 10% from the middle of June. Another five kinds of food prices were flat in the previous period, which increased by three kinds compared to the first half of June. In addition, only six kinds of food prices fell in the latter half of June compared with the middle of June, accounting for 21%, a sharp drop of 12 percentage points from the previous period.

It is worth noting that the price of pork hind legs has reached 30.58 yuan per kilogram by the end of June, and the pork pork belly price has reached 29.72 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of more than 5% in just 10 days. Compared with the price in late May, the pork hemp leg rose by 14.9% in the month in June, and pork pork rose by 14.6% in the whole month, a considerable increase.

Cabbage rose 17% in 10 days

The three most common foods that rose in late June were: Chinese cabbage rose by 17% (compared to mid-June), cucumber rose by 8.7%, beans rose by 6%, both of which were vegetables, and prices of all vegetables except potatoes were higher in late June. Rising, showing that most of the vegetable prices rebounded. Although the increase in pork prices did not reach the top three, both pork prices rose by 5.4%, just after the beans. However, the price of larger eggs in the previous period continued to fall in late June.

CPI increase will exceed 6%

Looking at the composition of CPI, food and housing prices have become the main cause of current price increases, and food prices have risen significantly in June. Coupled with hikes, experts generally expect June CPI growth to exceed 6%.

Shen Huiwan's chief macro analyst Li Huiyong believes that in the wake of soaring pork prices, the CPI is expected to increase by 6.5% in June, which is a new record high. The high CPI in the whole year was in June and July, but the increase in the third quarter and the higher-than-expected CPI for the whole year may increase significantly due to the price increase of pork.

CICC believes that a lot of food prices rose in June, and the prices of fruits and melons fell sharply, and non-food prices are expected to be flat or slightly higher than the previous month. Considering comprehensively, it is expected that the CPI in June will increase by about 6.2% year-on-year. Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, believes that the CPI growth rate in June was between 6.3% and 6.5%. Excluding food prices such as pork, the increase in rents and industrial electricity prices was a factor in the price increase.